Monday, September 15, 2008

(Insert joke about Chris Cooley's junk here)


Thoughts from the weekend...

Saturday:
  • Maybe Cal really was affected by the time change...
  • Watching the Penn State/Syracuse game, ESPN made a very big deal of promoting the film The Express. While it made sense, given that the film premiered the night before in Syracuse, and given that Ernie Davis went to Syracuse. What didn't make sense to me was that ESPN, a subsidiary of the Walt Disney Company, was actively promoting a film by Universal Studios. While I commend it, it's unbelievably out of character for the House of Mouse. Ever watch ESPN? Every commercial is for something on ABC, and every 45 seconds they're pointing you to ESPNRadio, or ESPN.com, or the Disney theme parks, cruises, whatever. It got so bad that the ombudsman (yeah, I'm not sure what it means either) for ESPN wrote a lengthy column about it. It's refreshing to see something different. And speaking of Syracuse football...
  • Ernie Davis wore the same number that Jim Brown did at Syracuse, which raises an interesting question; Syracuse didn't retire Jim Brown's number? Really? What, he wasn't good enough???? How good do you have to be to get your number retired??? (Addendum: That number, 44, was eventually retired in 2005 to honor Ernie Davis, Jim Brown, Floyd Little, and according to wikipedia, in honor of the school's ZIP code, 13244, which, oddly enough rushed for over 1,500 yards in 1975).
  • Given what happened on Saturday, I'm willing to make one small concession. Pay attention, 'Rita: Penn State has an outside chance at running the table this year. Looking at their remaining schedule, their biggest challenges appear to be on 10/11 at Wisconsin and on 10/25 at Ohio State. Granted, they're going to have to put together something pretty amazing to win either one of those on the road, but like I said (to avoid the j-word), it's an outside chance.
  • I've tried over and over to find a silver lining in UCLA's 'No-KY-No-Reach-Around' 59-0 behind the woodshed drubbing by BYU. Every time I do, I find that someone took a steaming dump in it. It was like watching the Creed/Drago fight. No one expected Creed to win, but come on!
  • The 'Rita brought up an interesting point on Saturday: USC starting cornerback Shareece Wright was charged with a felony after being detained at a party last weekend. This story broke prior to the OSU game on Saturday night, yet Pete Carroll still gave him significant playing time. In my (and the 'Rita's) opinion, this shows a glaring character flaw on the part of Carroll. One of the 'Rita's biggest bones of contention this season has been the bad press Penn State has been getting because of the numerous suspensions (and one dismissal) of players by Joe Paterno this year. Think about it though...is it really that Penn State players are that thuggish, or is it that Paterno is so old (insert 'school' here, if you wish) and grizzled and hardassed that he's completely unwilling to let something as seemingly innocuous as a missed curfew under the rug? (Sidebar: I did a little research on this, and it turns out that Wright went to my alma mater, Colton High School and graduated a year ahead of my little brother. I called my brother to see if he knew Wright, but he just knew of him...never really talked to him or anything. And that little tidbit paled in comparison to what I thought when I found out that when he was detained, Wright was at a party in Colton. Now, I understand you may not know much about Colton, but it raises a question that baffles me: If you're a full-ride scholarship starting cornerback for the number one ranked team in the country, the University of Southern California...why in the name of all that is holy would you go to a party in Colton??????)
  • Ohio State: O-H! S-H! I-T!
  • I'm convinced that USC could handily beat the Kansas City Chiefs, the Miami Dolphins, the Detroit Lions and my beloved San Francisco 49ers.
  • After that win, I'm so happy not to live in Los Angeles anymore. Having grown up there, I can say from experience that LA's front-runner fan reputation, for the most part, is well deserved. I can only imagine the number of USC flags on cars all over the southland these days. By the way, you wanna know why LA doesn't have an NFL team? Three words: Ewe. Ess. Sea.
  • Tina Fey is the funniest woman on the planet.
  • Michael Phelps has nuked the fridge.
Sunday:
  • Jim Zorn set the tone for a great Redskins season by going for it on 4th & 2 at the end of the game. I'm not saying they're going to contend yet, but he exceeded all expectations by calling a pass instead of a handoff to Portis. Well done.
  • Chris Horton may have just earned himself a starting job; two interceptions and a fumble recovery in his first NFL start due to an illness to Reed Doughty. I'm guessing Doughty feels breath on the back of his neck.
  • Mike Shanahan has bigger stones than you. Mike Shanahan has bigger stones than Liz Taylor's jewelry box.
  • Ed Hochuli was the number one pickup on fantasy waiver wires on Monday.
  • The Seattle Seahawks are 0-2. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 0-2. The San Diego Chargers are 0-2. The New England Patriots are 2-0. Of those teams, precisely one has a quarterback that's won a Super Bowl, and his backup has more wins than any of the other three teams mentioned above this season.
  • JT O'Sullivan is the next Jeff Garcia. Yeah, he had his moments, but he's not the answer either. To Dr. John York, from me, an embattled, passionate 49er fan...please please please PLEASE! SELL THE FRANCHISE TO SOMEONE WHO WANTS TO WIN!!!!
  • I ate eight pounds of meat last night...and an equivalent amount of fried polenta. Then I slept the sleep of pure, unadulterated, gluttonous, hedonistic bliss.

Friday, September 12, 2008

Jesus saves, but not as often as K-Rod


So Thursday night, Frankie Rodriguez tied Bobby Thigpen's single season's save record with 57 saves. He's in prime position to break the record tonight against the Mariners (provided the Angels don't completely blow them out...it is the Mariners). Being an Angels fan, I'm really proud about it, but there's a few things that bother me about the whole thing.

First off, earlier this year, Jerome Holtzman, the consensus creator of the statistic passed away. Jerome was a legendary baseball writer, and by all accounts, a good man. He came up with the idea of the save in 1960 to somehow quantify a reliever's worth. When the statistic became official in 1969, MLB went back and retroactively awarded saves for those prior to that point. Now, understand...the statistic was meant to quantify a reliever's worth, but what it eventually did was create a special type of reliever...the almighty closer. Holtzman's death seemed to spark a line of revisionist thinking about the save statistic and the closer's role in general.

Jim Caple, one of my favorite baseball writers, wrote this column not long after Holtzman's death. It's a decent and thought-provoking read, but if you don't go there, let me sum it up for you:
- Closers suck.

Just kidding. In all reality, he makes some good points. Closers didn't really exist until the 80s and they didn't become rockstars until the mid-90s. Closers, by my estimation, are the ego equivalent of elite NFL wide receivers. And it's become a little ridiculous...the best closers in the league have entrance music...yes, just like pro wrestlers. I blame Trevor Hoffman...I'm not sure when it started, but he enters the game to "Hell's Bells" by AC/DC. Mariano Rivera strolls to the mound to "Enter Sandman" by Metallica. I'm sure you're drawing the pro wrestling parallel along with me. And yes, just like pro wrestlers' entrances, closers' entrances are silly, but kinda cool at the same time. I used to get really pumped when I would be at an Angels game back in the pre-K-Rod days, and I'd hear Godsmack blaring from the PA at the end of the eighth inning, and see that beast Troy Percival jogging out to the mound. And he had a very scary presence on the mound...his fastball topped out at its peak around 100mph, but the scariest part was his squint...before every pitch, he squinted into the box as if he couldn't see, which added to his gravitas. Think about it...if you're facing down a guy who's got a three-digit heater, and he can't really see the strike zone, are you feeling particularly safe in the batters box?

I digress. But that's my point...the best closers have a mystique about them which is largely manufactured.

(sidebar: the Cal/Maryland game is on in the background, and all the idiot play-by-play team can talk about is the time difference between the West Coast and the East Coast. The 'Rita turned to me and brought up an excellent point: "If I were a Maryland fan, I'd be pissed off right now! Like the only reason we're winning is because Cal is three hours behind?? Screw that! The Cal team did not fly in last night...they've been here for a couple of days. They're not tired, they're just gettin' beat by Maryland!" That's my girl! By the way, to read more about terrible sports announcers, check out this blog by my buddy Brian Powell: awfulannouncing.blogspot.com. It's excellent. If he's watching, I'm sure he'll have much to say about this one.)

(side-sidebar: it appears that Cal may actually have flown in Friday afternoon, but the idiot announcers also said that Jeff Tedford has been ensuring that his team has been getting up and going to bed a couple of hours earlier than normal during the week to prepare...so it still shouldn't make a difference big enough for these morons to keep harping on it the way they have been. We now return you to your regularly scheduled West Coast Biased rantings.)

Caple's point is not that individual closers are overrated, but that the role of the closer is largely overrated. There's undoubtedly some merit to that. There are pitchers out there who routinely pitch complete games; Roy Halladay and CC (sans periods) Sabathia immediately jump to mind. Yet, most of the time closers are only brought in after they've had their setup man pitch the eighth, and only if it's a "save situation". So let's think about this...your starter went a solid 7 and got you a lead...it's not a blowout lead, but you're up by three. Your setup man comes in to pitch the eighth and he's lights out, and you're going into the ninth with a lead. Cue the pyrotechnics and the Black Sabbath, it's closer time. Now, this raises an interesting question...do you really believe that your setup man who's just pitched a great lights out inning can't hold a three-run lead for three more outs? It's a little ridiculous, yet it happens season after season. Not only that, but a few years ago, closers more often than not, would pitch part of the eighth inning. Now, it's almost unheard of. I'm not sure, and I haven't looked it up (can't be bothered, I'm nursing a mild hangover), but I'd be willing to bet that, on average, blown saves have decreased league wide within the last decade.

That's one of the knocks against K-Rod this season...he's never been brought in before the ninth, and he's only been brought in for a non-save situation a couple of times. His numbers are also not as 'dominant' as he has been in the past, or as some other closers are this season. The same day Jim Caple ran his column, fellow ESPN columnist Jonah Keri basically destroyed any hope for K-Rod to win any kind of postseason award with this column, which did a great job of analyzing his season from a purely statistical standpoint. K-Rod's not among the top closers in the league in ERA or opponent's OPS, or any of the other sabermetric stathead stats like VORP or WORP or CHAP or WPA or BUD or CARL or JACKBAUER (pop quiz: which of the preceding are actual statistics, and which did I make up?). On top of that, since the Angels under Mike Scioscia have been a small ball team that doesn't live and die by the home run, they play a ton of close games. Close games translate to save opportunities, of which K-Rod has had more than any other closer this season. And since it's really not that hard to pitch three outs for any MLB pitcher (there's plenty of data out there to support the contention that teams should completely eliminate the closer role), save opportunities mean saves.

Legendary baseball writer Ken Rosenthal wrote this column a few days ago, which echoes a lot of the same items that Caple and Keri stated in their earlier columns, but at the same time, defends K-Rod's place in history. He puts a great perspective on the problem of the closer by saying, "The save rule created closers. The save rule condemns them." It's a great read...if you're going to read any of the three I've put up, make that the one.

Now, what truly frustrates me is that this is an actual record, and it seems that because many sportswriters were afraid of upsetting a hall of fame writer of Jerome Holtzman's stature, they waited until he kicked off to start questioning the relevance of his brainchild and legacy. Not only that, but it's not K-Rod's fault that his team gets him more save opportunities. It's not his fault that Holtzman passed away and writers felt it was safe to start criticizing the save rule. Whatever the circumstances, Frankie Rodriguez is going to break the single season save record within the next few days, and he will more than likely hold that record for a very long time, because it's taken a confluence of good fortune to put him in this position in the first place.

I, for one, am extremely impressed with this kid. In his rookie season, he played setup man for Troy Percival in the World Series, and became the full time closer in 2003. He quickly became established as one of the more consistently lights out closers in the league. He had a pretty public arbitration hearing before the beginning of this season, which he lost, virtually guaranteeing that he'll be gone at season's end, whether or not they can bring home a ring. He's put it behind him and become the quintessential professional athlete in the free agent era: performing the 'did you really not see this coming?' contract year surge. So yeah, some team's going to overpay for him next year, and since the Angels have Jose Arredondo waiting in the wings to take over the closer's role (can't wait to see what he chooses for entrance music!), they'll likely shake Frankie's hand and thank him for his service. And because of the set of circumstances he's been given with this team, this season, he'll never sniff anything close to 55 saves again. I've been a fan of K-Rod since his rookie year in 2002, and I wish him the best wherever he ends up. More than anything, I'm really hoping that he can bookend his stint with the Angels with World Series Championships...he started his career with one in 2002.

Frankie, do your thing. Don't listen to the haters out there. We'll miss you next year, but at least you (and we, as Angels fans) can rest easy knowing that the single season save record will be safe in Anaheim for years and years. And wherever you end up, if you can bring home a ring for us, we'll give you the same honor we gave to Scott Speizio and Troy Percival upon their returns home. If, by chance, you come home to the Big A, and your team's got a save situation, your first fans will stand and cheer loudly for you. You've become as much a part of Angels lore as Wally, Reggie, the Kingfish and the Rally Monkey. So thanks, Frankie. Finish the season strong and let's bring it home! Your contract value will be quite enhanced if you do.

Monday, September 8, 2008

Eulogy for a million fantasy football teams

I set this up a long time ago, but just hadn't got around to writing anything until now. Maybe it was lack of inspiration. Maybe it was lack of free time. Today, I have a little bit of both. Football's back!

To begin with, let me apologize to about 18 percent of you out there. I figure that's about the right number...something like one in six of you thought you had your league on lock because you drafted Tom Brady. I feel for you guys and dolls out there. It's a rough blow to all of us. The man's a national treasure (I'll address you Pats fans in a moment, just wait your turn.). Okay, that was said with tongue firmly planted in cheek, given my distaste for all Boston area sports teams. In all seriousness, there's nothing funny about it (well, one tiny thing, and I'll come back to that later). Brady's easily the best QB in the game right now, and I'm starting to buy into the Joe Montana comparisons...he just wins, and makes it look easy. I know, I know...Peyton's great too (well, he was only slightly more effective than Brady on Sunday), but if Brady's Joe, then Peyton's Elway...probably much more talented physically, but can only close the deal sporadically.

Far be it from me to actually wish harm upon someone, even Tom Brady...it sucks that he's already done for the year. Sure, I've playfully wished harm upon about 90 percent of the league at some point, but when I heard about this one, I was mostly perplexed...Brady just does NOT get hurt! Going into Sunday, he had the third longest streak of games started of all time...not active, but all time. The guy's a machine, and has been extraordinarily lucky in his career to have been standing behind five Mack trucks...ever watch him in the pocket??? Most of the time, he's got enough time to write a letter to Mom, "Oh, and Mom, Gisele says hi. Love, Tommy Boy." Only in the Super Bowl did we start to see chinks in the brick wall Pats O-line...looks like that concern hasn't gone away. The hit, by most accounts was clean, it was just unfortunate...kinda like the situation the Pats are in right now, along with all you fantasy team owners. But, as always, there may be hope.

Fantasy owners, take heart. It's week one. There are myriad options for you at this point. You can hit up the other owners in the league and try to trade eight of your receivers (you did draft eight receivers, right? Why worry? You've got Tom Brady!) for Jake Delhomme or Jon Kitna. Don't worry too much, I'm sure you drafted a strong RB to hedge your bets, right? Oh, you got Frank Gore? Yikes (it truly pains me to say that as a 49ers fan, but I'm also a realist). Well, it looks like your main option is the waiver wire. And you know which name you need to look for...say it with me, now...Matt Cassel. I haven't looked, but I'd be willing to bet that at this point, 8:23pm EST on Monday, September 8, Matt Cassel is probably about 60 percent owned. Not impressive until you consider that he was about minus-40 percent owned yesterday morning. Tom Brady drafters, take heart...I know you went out and got Cassel. You'll be fine.

Now, to include the Pats fans in the conversation. I wouldn't worry if I were you either. Tom's great, as I've said. He's won Super Bowls throwing to the beer man from Section 405. As TMQ said a few years ago, the WR helmets for the Pats up until last year seemed to have had an inscription on the inside that said "Insert head. Become superstar." That was before last year. Of course, he didn't win it last year, but consider that it took a pair of miraculous escapes by Eli and an impossible headtrap catch by David Tyree within about four seconds to beat him. No, the real difference last year was...say it with me, now...Randy Moss.

I remember about ten years ago, there was another offensively dominant team out there that came just shy of winning it all (well, they got smoked in the NFC Championship Game by, oddly enough, the G-men). The 1998 Vikings were a powderkeg on offense, and they were helmed by some who-dat QB named Daunte Culpepper. I also remember every sports anchor/writer/announcer touting Culpepper as the greatest since Joe...and I remember thinking to myself, "He's got a great O-line, and he's throwing to Randy Moss and Cris Carter. I could get out there and throw for 400 yards a game with that combo." Fast forward ten years, and we have a who-dat QB with a great O-line who's throwing to Randy Moss and Wes Welker (No, I'm not comparing Welker to Moss or Carter, but he's a viable threat, and Moss is better than ever). A lot of stuff's going to have to go right for the Pats for them to reach that level, but it's absolutely possible. They have the easiest schedule in the NFL this season, being that they play in the shoddy AFC East (yes, even with Brett Fav-re, the Jets are still barely a .500 team), and they've drawn the below average AFC West and the abysmal NFC West this year.

Now, this is a shot in the dark, but it's not out of the realm of possibility. Matt Cassel has an absolutely golden opportunity here. If we can all recall the names Kurt Warner, Marc Bulger, Jeff Garcia, Tony Romo and yes, even Tom Brady. What do they have in common? If you follow the NFL at all (or if you've been reading anything NFL related in the last 24 hours), you know that all of them were who-dats who got their first shot at the big time when the starters in front of them went down with injuries. I'm not saying Brady should be worried, but he may want to have Drew Bledsoe on speed dial...just in case.

Oh, the one funny thing about this whole mess? Belichick's had Brady on the injured list as "questionable - leg injury" every single week for the last three years. The injured list came out this past Sunday without Tom Brady on it. Irony can be pretty ironic sometimes.

So buck up, Pats fans...all is not lost. As long as Emperor Belichick is walking those sidelines in the cutoff hoodie shroud, Darth Moss is still a threat. And since San Diego, Jacksonville and Indy all lost on Sunday...anything is possible.

Week two...what ya got?